your daily dose of doom...
05-21-2008, 11:33 PM
#1
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your daily dose of doom...
5/21/08
NY Times: An Oracle of Oil Predicts a Super Spike to $200 a Barrel
Arjun N. Murti remembers the pain of the oil shocks of the 1970s. But he is
bracing for something far worse now: He foresees a "super spike" — a
price surge that will soon drive crude oil to $200 a barrel. An analyst at
Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing
one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed
when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now.
Oil shattered yet another record on Tuesday, touching $129.60 . . . Gas at
$4 a gallon is arriving just in time for those long summer drives.
Robert Hirsch: Expect Gasoline at $12-to-$15 Per Gallon
Robert Hirsch appeared on CNBC this morning. He said flat out that new
technologies and new drilling won't solve the peak oil problem, and that we
should expect $12-15/gallon gasoline followed by rationing.
Der Spiegel: Are Pension Funds Fueling High Oil Prices?
If you're wondering why driving to work has gotten so expensive, you might
want to peruse your pension fund's investments. That's because
speculation by institutional investors pouring money into the commodities
market may be largely to blame, according to testimony on May 20 before
the Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs.
James Howard Kunstler: Prepare for a Total Freak Out
Relinked in light of the above articles:
The next thing in store for America, in my opinion, will be a rather new
surprise: oil-and-gasoline shortages. While frightened money pours into the
oil futures markets, driving the price up, strange behavior will start brewing
in the actual physical allocation process. Imports of oil and gas to the US
may not be as reliable as it had been when America seemed to be a
solvent nation. The exporters may be changing their terms of doing
business with us -- and that's nearly two-thirds of all the oil we need. The
public would probably suck up oil price increases indefinitely, but shortages
are going to be something else. A real freak out.
Financial Times: Commercial Property Plunging
Commercial property prices in the US in February saw their sharpest
decline since records began nearly 15 years ago as sources of finance for
deals has dried up . . . The value of commercial buildings fell 1.03 per cent
between January and February, the largest monthly decline since at least
1993, when the industry was just emerging from a deep slump. The fall in
national property prices comes as banks have retrenched on lending due to
credit crisis and the slowing economy, causing the volume of deals to slow
sharply. The market for commercial mortgage-backed securities, which
was a major route to cheaper borrowing, has largely ground to a halt.
Soaring Foreclosure Numbers Mean More Prey for Vulture Funds
National investors such as The Blackstone Group and Lehman Bros. Inc.
have reportedly purchased billions of dollars of foreclosed properties
through private equity funds. They haven’t, however, left much of a paper
trail for local players who are sorting through the chatter to find legitimate
deals, says Lorne Polger, managing partner of Pathfinder Partners LLC.
Hard Numbers: The Economy is Worse Than You Know
Ever since the 1960s, Washington has gulled its citizens and creditors by
debasing official statistics, the vital instruments with which the vigor and
muscle of the American economy are measured. The effect has been to
create a false sense of economic achievement and rectitude, allowing us to
maintain artificially low interest rates, massive government borrowing, and
a dangerous reliance on mortgage and financial debt even as real economic
growth has been slower than claimed. The corruption has tainted the very
measures that most shape public perception of the economy . . .
Market Watch: Numbers Racket' Exposes Potential Disaster for Economy
Flash forward to 2009: Real life, Washington, new leaders, a new Congress,
old wizardry. Be forewarned: No matter who's elected president, America
will soon see a massive statistical curtain pulled back, exposing a con game
of historic proportions. And when that happens, you and I will suffer
another ear-splitting global meltdown, bigger than today's housing-credit
crisis, dragging us deep into a recession and bear market for years.
Forbers: The Next Credit Crisis
The first wave of the crisis affected trading books, but the second wave
will hit lending. This is because consumers got accustomed to the same "a
rolling loan gathers no loss" mentality, said Oppenheimer & Co. analyst
Meredith Whitney. As long as housing values continued to rise, borrowers
could refinance in perpetuity to avoid default. Losses mounted when that
refinancing spigot got shut off. "A result of poor risk management at some
financial institutions was that the spreading of risk, one of the purported
benefits of the originate-to-distribute model, proved to be much less
extensive than believed," said Ben Bernanke . . .
Financial Times: "Real harrowing days are in front of us . . ."
According to Meredith Whitney and a team of analysts from Oppenheimer,
the extended credit crisis will result in further significant writedowns. "We
believe the real harrowing days of the credit crisis are in front of us and
will prove more widespread in effect than anything yet seen . . ."
NY Times: Shoppers Stick to Buying Only Basics, Retailers Say
Two of the largest United States retailers said on Tuesday that the weak
economy and battered housing industry were discouraging consumers from
making anything more than basic purchases. Home Depot, the leading
home improvement retailer, and Target, the No. 2 discounter after Wal
-Mart, both reported lower earnings, and warned that results for the rest
of the year would be sluggish. "As gas and food prices continue to rise and
housing market slows, consumers are facing increased financial pressure
and reducing their spending, especially in discretionary categories . . ."
Wall Street Journal: Less Shopping = Fewer Malls
Retail construction, which surged in recent years amid easy financing and
robust consumer spending, has lost momentum as retailers curtail growth
plans and lenders remain stingy. Many of the largest U.S. developers of
malls and shopping centers have reacted to retailers' waning demand for
space by postponing by a year or more some of their projects. Other
venues will be built piecemeal as leasing progress allows. Still others have
been canceled before the start of construction.
LA Times: Things Looking Up for Pawn Shops and Loan Sharks
The economy is tanking, banks are scrambling for cover, the Fed is cutting
interest rates . . . and business is booming at pawn shop Crown City Loan
& Jewelry in Old Pasadena. Standing behind a display case brimming with
hocked watches and jewelry, owner Doug Robinson can only smile when
asked how things are going. Business is very good," he said. "The loan
business is very good." These aren't just any loans, of course. Robinson
said the money he hands out -- no questions asked -- in return for people's
collateral typically comes with an annual interest rate of about 60%.
How Low Interest Rates Fueled the Bubble But Can't Stop the Bust
Bottom line: you can't force buyers to risk buying a house which is at high
risk of falling in value (a capital trap they can never escape) or lenders to
make loans which carry a high risk of default, or investors to buy high-risk
loans for a pathetically low rate of return. This is why all the machinations
and gambits to "make houses affordable again" via the masking of risk and
the lowering of borrowing costs will fail.
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
NY Times: An Oracle of Oil Predicts a Super Spike to $200 a Barrel
Arjun N. Murti remembers the pain of the oil shocks of the 1970s. But he is
bracing for something far worse now: He foresees a "super spike" — a
price surge that will soon drive crude oil to $200 a barrel. An analyst at
Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing
one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed
when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now.
Oil shattered yet another record on Tuesday, touching $129.60 . . . Gas at
$4 a gallon is arriving just in time for those long summer drives.
Robert Hirsch: Expect Gasoline at $12-to-$15 Per Gallon
Robert Hirsch appeared on CNBC this morning. He said flat out that new
technologies and new drilling won't solve the peak oil problem, and that we
should expect $12-15/gallon gasoline followed by rationing.
Der Spiegel: Are Pension Funds Fueling High Oil Prices?
If you're wondering why driving to work has gotten so expensive, you might
want to peruse your pension fund's investments. That's because
speculation by institutional investors pouring money into the commodities
market may be largely to blame, according to testimony on May 20 before
the Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs.
James Howard Kunstler: Prepare for a Total Freak Out
Relinked in light of the above articles:
The next thing in store for America, in my opinion, will be a rather new
surprise: oil-and-gasoline shortages. While frightened money pours into the
oil futures markets, driving the price up, strange behavior will start brewing
in the actual physical allocation process. Imports of oil and gas to the US
may not be as reliable as it had been when America seemed to be a
solvent nation. The exporters may be changing their terms of doing
business with us -- and that's nearly two-thirds of all the oil we need. The
public would probably suck up oil price increases indefinitely, but shortages
are going to be something else. A real freak out.
Financial Times: Commercial Property Plunging
Commercial property prices in the US in February saw their sharpest
decline since records began nearly 15 years ago as sources of finance for
deals has dried up . . . The value of commercial buildings fell 1.03 per cent
between January and February, the largest monthly decline since at least
1993, when the industry was just emerging from a deep slump. The fall in
national property prices comes as banks have retrenched on lending due to
credit crisis and the slowing economy, causing the volume of deals to slow
sharply. The market for commercial mortgage-backed securities, which
was a major route to cheaper borrowing, has largely ground to a halt.
Soaring Foreclosure Numbers Mean More Prey for Vulture Funds
National investors such as The Blackstone Group and Lehman Bros. Inc.
have reportedly purchased billions of dollars of foreclosed properties
through private equity funds. They haven’t, however, left much of a paper
trail for local players who are sorting through the chatter to find legitimate
deals, says Lorne Polger, managing partner of Pathfinder Partners LLC.
Hard Numbers: The Economy is Worse Than You Know
Ever since the 1960s, Washington has gulled its citizens and creditors by
debasing official statistics, the vital instruments with which the vigor and
muscle of the American economy are measured. The effect has been to
create a false sense of economic achievement and rectitude, allowing us to
maintain artificially low interest rates, massive government borrowing, and
a dangerous reliance on mortgage and financial debt even as real economic
growth has been slower than claimed. The corruption has tainted the very
measures that most shape public perception of the economy . . .
Market Watch: Numbers Racket' Exposes Potential Disaster for Economy
Flash forward to 2009: Real life, Washington, new leaders, a new Congress,
old wizardry. Be forewarned: No matter who's elected president, America
will soon see a massive statistical curtain pulled back, exposing a con game
of historic proportions. And when that happens, you and I will suffer
another ear-splitting global meltdown, bigger than today's housing-credit
crisis, dragging us deep into a recession and bear market for years.
Forbers: The Next Credit Crisis
The first wave of the crisis affected trading books, but the second wave
will hit lending. This is because consumers got accustomed to the same "a
rolling loan gathers no loss" mentality, said Oppenheimer & Co. analyst
Meredith Whitney. As long as housing values continued to rise, borrowers
could refinance in perpetuity to avoid default. Losses mounted when that
refinancing spigot got shut off. "A result of poor risk management at some
financial institutions was that the spreading of risk, one of the purported
benefits of the originate-to-distribute model, proved to be much less
extensive than believed," said Ben Bernanke . . .
Financial Times: "Real harrowing days are in front of us . . ."
According to Meredith Whitney and a team of analysts from Oppenheimer,
the extended credit crisis will result in further significant writedowns. "We
believe the real harrowing days of the credit crisis are in front of us and
will prove more widespread in effect than anything yet seen . . ."
NY Times: Shoppers Stick to Buying Only Basics, Retailers Say
Two of the largest United States retailers said on Tuesday that the weak
economy and battered housing industry were discouraging consumers from
making anything more than basic purchases. Home Depot, the leading
home improvement retailer, and Target, the No. 2 discounter after Wal
-Mart, both reported lower earnings, and warned that results for the rest
of the year would be sluggish. "As gas and food prices continue to rise and
housing market slows, consumers are facing increased financial pressure
and reducing their spending, especially in discretionary categories . . ."
Wall Street Journal: Less Shopping = Fewer Malls
Retail construction, which surged in recent years amid easy financing and
robust consumer spending, has lost momentum as retailers curtail growth
plans and lenders remain stingy. Many of the largest U.S. developers of
malls and shopping centers have reacted to retailers' waning demand for
space by postponing by a year or more some of their projects. Other
venues will be built piecemeal as leasing progress allows. Still others have
been canceled before the start of construction.
LA Times: Things Looking Up for Pawn Shops and Loan Sharks
The economy is tanking, banks are scrambling for cover, the Fed is cutting
interest rates . . . and business is booming at pawn shop Crown City Loan
& Jewelry in Old Pasadena. Standing behind a display case brimming with
hocked watches and jewelry, owner Doug Robinson can only smile when
asked how things are going. Business is very good," he said. "The loan
business is very good." These aren't just any loans, of course. Robinson
said the money he hands out -- no questions asked -- in return for people's
collateral typically comes with an annual interest rate of about 60%.
How Low Interest Rates Fueled the Bubble But Can't Stop the Bust
Bottom line: you can't force buyers to risk buying a house which is at high
risk of falling in value (a capital trap they can never escape) or lenders to
make loans which carry a high risk of default, or investors to buy high-risk
loans for a pathetically low rate of return. This is why all the machinations
and gambits to "make houses affordable again" via the masking of risk and
the lowering of borrowing costs will fail.
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
05-22-2008, 12:14 AM
#2
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AlphaSquad
SL Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Orange County, CA
Posts: 1,198
its amazing what this country is coming to...
i actually saw two documentaries on IFC regarding these problems
1) Peak oil (forgot what the doc was called)
2) National Debt (Maxed out)
when you watch **** like this, it really opens your eyes on whats happening on the other side of the fence. its sad that it might all come down to this...but its gonna happen. its sad to see that by 2010 our country will be owned by creditors, does any one know the actuall deficit this countrys in as of today?..................$9,380,855,133,471.22.....yes ....thats trillion....and growing every second. and most of it is pure interest...
sad
i actually saw two documentaries on IFC regarding these problems
1) Peak oil (forgot what the doc was called)
2) National Debt (Maxed out)
when you watch **** like this, it really opens your eyes on whats happening on the other side of the fence. its sad that it might all come down to this...but its gonna happen. its sad to see that by 2010 our country will be owned by creditors, does any one know the actuall deficit this countrys in as of today?..................$9,380,855,133,471.22.....yes ....thats trillion....and growing every second. and most of it is pure interest...
sad
05-22-2008, 12:26 AM
#3
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Just wait until India and China enter the picture.
But I see an upside to high oil prices - alternatives like solar, electric, etc will become "economically viable" and start gaining traction.
As far as what this country is coming to, there is too much foreign money invested here to make a US downfall inevitable - too many people have too much to lose - as usual, the media puts too much focus on the negatives and does not balance out the facts.
But I see an upside to high oil prices - alternatives like solar, electric, etc will become "economically viable" and start gaining traction.
As far as what this country is coming to, there is too much foreign money invested here to make a US downfall inevitable - too many people have too much to lose - as usual, the media puts too much focus on the negatives and does not balance out the facts.
05-22-2008, 12:32 AM
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heres an article:
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/...4692_db016.htm
or: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=china+india+oil+
basically, they are becoming economically enpowered and will become more like the US (i.e. energy sucking parasites)
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/...4692_db016.htm
or: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=china+india+oil+
basically, they are becoming economically enpowered and will become more like the US (i.e. energy sucking parasites)
05-22-2008, 05:56 PM
#6
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Originally Posted by HeathenBrewing
Just wait until India and China enter the picture.
But I see an upside to high oil prices - alternatives like solar, electric, etc will become "economically viable" and start gaining traction.
As far as what this country is coming to, there is too much foreign money invested here to make a US downfall inevitable - too many people have too much to lose - as usual, the media puts too much focus on the negatives and does not balance out the facts.
But I see an upside to high oil prices - alternatives like solar, electric, etc will become "economically viable" and start gaining traction.
As far as what this country is coming to, there is too much foreign money invested here to make a US downfall inevitable - too many people have too much to lose - as usual, the media puts too much focus on the negatives and does not balance out the facts.
05-22-2008, 07:41 PM
#7
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AlphaSquad
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Posts: 1,198
^^ you also have OPEC to blame for that .
did you guys here that a bill was just passed not even an hour ago that would fund the war in iraq for +$19 billion for the next 13 months out of national debt raising it to a whopping $9 TRILLION? whats your guys' take on this?
did you guys here that a bill was just passed not even an hour ago that would fund the war in iraq for +$19 billion for the next 13 months out of national debt raising it to a whopping $9 TRILLION? whats your guys' take on this?
05-22-2008, 09:59 PM
#8
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Originally Posted by Akrylic09
^^ you also have OPEC to blame for that .
did you guys here that a bill was just passed not even an hour ago that would fund the war in iraq for +$19 billion for the next 13 months out of national debt raising it to a whopping $9 TRILLION? whats your guys' take on this?
did you guys here that a bill was just passed not even an hour ago that would fund the war in iraq for +$19 billion for the next 13 months out of national debt raising it to a whopping $9 TRILLION? whats your guys' take on this?
Regardless of how the media and/or political figures try to deny it, the US will be remaining in Iraq for decades and decades to come.
05-23-2008, 04:13 AM
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Could all of this be on purpose to cripple America, so that we have to rely on the world for help? I hear a few people who they call conspiracists talking about the one world order. Could this actually be possible?
Besides the old American mindset, there's one other group of people who won't bow down to world pressure, and that's the Islamic people. And yeah, because of their religion. Everyone can make a case for their own people, but in most cases, they've already become accustomed to being told what to do. And I say old American mindset, because we've definitely become soft. And isn't it a coincidence that the one nation who might rebel against being assimilated, is at odds with the one people who wouldn't fall into place in a mostly westernized world society? Two birds with one stone.
Anyhow, the above is not my beliefs, just random thoughts that popped into my head as I read through this thread. Very interesting stuff.
Besides the old American mindset, there's one other group of people who won't bow down to world pressure, and that's the Islamic people. And yeah, because of their religion. Everyone can make a case for their own people, but in most cases, they've already become accustomed to being told what to do. And I say old American mindset, because we've definitely become soft. And isn't it a coincidence that the one nation who might rebel against being assimilated, is at odds with the one people who wouldn't fall into place in a mostly westernized world society? Two birds with one stone.
Anyhow, the above is not my beliefs, just random thoughts that popped into my head as I read through this thread. Very interesting stuff.
05-27-2008, 06:41 PM
#11
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Originally Posted by SLIVER007
WWIII is coming and the fight will be over OIL!!! Why do you think we are in iraq, What ever happen to those WMD's.
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